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Konyaspor 1–1 Goztep

← Süper Lig 2017 · Sat, May 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Umit Ozturk, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Konyaspor win67%1.43
Draw21%4.65
Goztep win12%7.89

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

36'🟨Selçuk Şahin · Goztep
45'🟨Demba Ba · Goztep
56'⚽Demba Ba · Goztep
58'🟨Nejc Skubic · Konyaspor
58'🟨Halil Akbunar · Goztep
64'🟨Serkan Kırıntılı · Konyaspor
75'⚽Ömer Ali Şahiner · Konyaspor
89'🟨André Poko · Goztep
89'🟨André Poko · Goztep
89'🟥André Poko · Goztep
90'🟨Beto · Goztep

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
7Shots9
1On target7
7Corners10
11Fouls13
2Yellow cards6
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKonyasporGoztep
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.280.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.36
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.610.61
cards avg (last 5)1.802.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueKonya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu
coach days72.00315.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.170.18
corner diff avg (last 5)1.603.80
corners against avg (last 5)5.402.60
corners for avg (last 5)7.006.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.954.14
defensive leak (last 5)0.040.13
dominance (last 5)0.600.52
elo1533.611471.97
elo momentum (last 5)26.1016.42
eye test v1-0.280.14
eye trend v10.27-0.09
first sub minute (last 10)54.1057.40
form points (last 5)10.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.800.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.401.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.431.55
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.30
keeper form v10.710.72
league points39.0048.00
league rank18.0010.00
matches since blank4.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.4078.80
possession avg (last 5)55.4051.40
rest days7.005.00
scorer concentration0.140.20
season ppg1.031.30
shot diff avg (last 5)2.800.60
shots for avg (last 5)9.009.60
skill v10.670.33
sot against avg (last 5)2.004.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.004.50
sot for avg (last 3)3.334.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.604.60
squad age28.7227.51
state index0.63-0.11
sterile dominance v10.640.18
threat rate (last 10)0.200.25
threat rate (last 3)0.230.25
threat rate (last 5)0.210.24
venue ppg (last 5)2.400.40