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Besiktas 2–0 Kayserispor

← Süper Lig 2017 · Mon, May 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Baris Simsek, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Besiktas win79%1.22
Draw14%6.78
Kayserispor win7%14.86

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

20'🟨Duško Tošić · Besiktas
26'🟨Şamil Çinaz · Kayserispor
30'🟨Stéphane Badji · Kayserispor
31'⚽Duško Tošić · Besiktas
45'⚽Adriano · Besiktas
61'🟨Duško Tošić · Besiktas
61'🟥Duško Tošić · Besiktas
85'🟨Umut Bulut · Kayserispor
90'🟨Umut Bulut · Kayserispor
90'🟥Umut Bulut · Kayserispor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
10Shots8
7On target1
7Corners7
14Fouls11
2Yellow cards4
1Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBesiktasKayserispor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.20
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.310.36
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.21
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.520.45
cards avg (last 5)1.002.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueVodafone Park
coach days1071.006.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.190.17
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.40-2.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.605.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.202.20
corners volatility (last 10)3.333.77
defensive leak (last 5)0.070.30
dominance (last 5)0.560.39
elo1766.231507.35
elo momentum (last 5)-15.64-25.02
eye test v10.55-1.42
eye trend v1-0.160.37
first sub minute (last 10)60.5053.00
form points (last 5)9.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.00-1.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.202.80
goals for avg (last 5)2.201.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.721.32
h2 goals (last 10)1.200.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.800.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.25
keeper form v10.800.52
league points70.0049.00
league rank2.009.00
matches since blank0.004.00
matches since clean sheet3.0013.00
matches since win2.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)83.8079.40
possession avg (last 5)61.2047.20
rest days7.929.00
scorer concentration0.220.36
season ppg1.891.32
shot diff avg (last 5)3.20-3.60
shots for avg (last 5)12.407.00
skill v11.520.11
sot against avg (last 5)4.405.80
sot for avg (last 10)5.302.10
sot for avg (last 3)4.672.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.201.80
squad age30.2729.04
state index0.94-1.04
sterile dominance v10.910.75
threat rate (last 10)0.260.16
threat rate (last 3)0.250.10
threat rate (last 5)0.250.14
venue ppg (last 5)3.000.00