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Fenerbahce 2–1 Bursaspor

← Süper Lig 2017 · Sun, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Firat Aydinus, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fenerbahce win82%1.18
Draw12%8.30
Bursaspor win6%16.60

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

22'🟨Furkan Soyalp · Bursaspor
54'🟨Mehmet Topal · Fenerbahce
54'🟨Pablo Batalla · Bursaspor
62'🟨Mathieu Valbuena · Fenerbahce
69'⚽Furkan Soyalp · Bursaspor
71'⚽ (og)Moussa Sow · Fenerbahce
83'🟥Titi · Bursaspor
84'🟥Kubilay Kanatsızkuş · Bursaspor
90'⚽Fernandão · Fenerbahce

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
19Shots7
7On target4
5Corners4
12Fouls13
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards2

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFenerbahceBursaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.450.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.460.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.29
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.630.66
cards avg (last 5)1.003.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueŞükrü Saracoğlu Stadı
coach days339.00339.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.280.18
corner diff avg (last 5)1.604.60
corners against avg (last 5)3.202.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.806.60
corners volatility (last 10)3.332.95
defensive leak (last 5)0.070.26
dominance (last 5)0.600.54
elo1789.221465.34
elo momentum (last 5)35.03-1.35
eye test v10.68-0.53
eye trend v10.050.43
first sub minute (last 10)57.8055.20
form points (last 5)15.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)2.400.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals for avg (last 5)3.201.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.721.25
h2 goals (last 10)1.300.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.550.25
keeper form v10.790.58
league points74.0040.00
league rank1.0015.00
matches since blank6.003.00
matches since clean sheet4.006.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.8075.40
possession avg (last 5)55.0052.20
rest days7.926.00
scorer concentration0.180.19
season ppg2.001.08
shot diff avg (last 5)3.801.00
shots for avg (last 5)12.007.00
skill v10.680.04
sot against avg (last 5)2.603.00
sot for avg (last 10)5.203.20
sot for avg (last 3)6.004.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.603.20
squad age29.0527.58
state index1.47-0.29
sterile dominance v10.220.25
threat rate (last 10)0.230.19
threat rate (last 3)0.250.22
threat rate (last 5)0.270.22
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.60