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Kardemir Karabukspor 0–1 Konyaspor

← Süper Lig 2017 · Sat, May 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Ozgur Yankaya, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Konyaspor win81%1.19
Draw13%7.53
Kardemir Karabukspor win6%16.06

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

21'🟨Alican Karadağ · Kardemir Karabukspor
24'🟨Ali Turan · Konyaspor
37'⚽ (pen)Samuel Eto'o · Konyaspor
52'🟨Tayyip Talha Sanuç · Kardemir Karabukspor
55'🟨— · Kardemir Karabukspor
72'🟨Mehdi Bourabia · Konyaspor
79'🟨Ergin Keleş · Kardemir Karabukspor
81'🟨İshak Doğan · Kardemir Karabukspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
2Shots6
0On target3
1Corners9
16Fouls15
5Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKardemir KarabuksporKonyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.23
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
box share (last 5)0.440.53
cards avg (last 5)1.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueDr. Necmettin Şeyhoğlu Stadium
1.80
coach days65.0065.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.14
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.20-0.80
corners against avg (last 5)5.406.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.206.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.072.64
defensive leak (last 5)0.270.04
dominance (last 5)0.380.55
elo1305.121527.98
elo momentum (last 5)-40.6241.93
eye test v1-0.68-0.26
eye trend v10.010.03
first sub minute (last 10)44.4054.30
form points (last 5)0.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-2.601.60
goals against avg (last 5)3.000.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.402.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.701.51
h2 goals (last 10)0.300.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.100.90
ht lead rate (last 20)0.000.35
keeper form v10.500.76
league points15.0036.00
league rank21.0019.00
matches since blank0.003.00
matches since clean sheet13.001.00
matches since win13.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.6077.20
possession avg (last 5)45.4054.00
rest days8.005.00
scorer concentration0.360.14
season ppg0.410.97
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.201.80
shots for avg (last 5)6.409.00
skill v10.110.35
sot against avg (last 5)5.602.40
sot for avg (last 10)2.803.00
sot for avg (last 3)2.672.67
sot for avg (last 5)2.803.80
squad age27.9828.66
state index-2.160.45
sterile dominance v10.450.48
threat rate (last 10)0.210.19
threat rate (last 3)0.190.20
threat rate (last 5)0.170.21
venue ppg (last 5)0.000.40