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Besiktas 3–1 Yeni Malatyaspor

← Süper Lig 2017 · Sun, Apr 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Halis Ozkahya, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Besiktas win80%1.21
Draw14%6.95
Yeni Malatyaspor win6%17.00

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

13'⚽Álvaro Negredo · Besiktas
33'⚽Michael Pereira · Yeni Malatyaspor
42'🟨Murat Yildirim · Yeni Malatyaspor
81'⚽Anderson Talisca · Besiktas
87'🟨Sadık Çiftpınar · Yeni Malatyaspor
88'⚽Ricardo Quaresma · Besiktas

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
19Shots10
6On target5
7Corners0
10Fouls13
0Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBesiktasYeni Malatyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.42
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.38
box share (last 5)0.540.58
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days1056.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueVodafone Park
233.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.463.97
elo1719.571494.01
elo momentum (last 5)12.50-15.67
eye test v10.51-0.06
eye trend v1-0.470.04
first sub minute (last 10)62.9057.70
form points (last 5)12.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.60-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.401.80
goals for avg (last 5)2.001.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.701.32
keeper form v10.800.62
league points59.0038.00
league rank3.0010.00
matches since blank3.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.005.00
matches since win0.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)85.2074.60
possession avg (last 5)63.2045.80
rest days8.968.13
scorer concentration0.240.38
season ppg2.031.31
skill v11.80-0.48
sot against avg (last 5)3.403.60
sot for avg (last 10)6.704.00
sot for avg (last 3)5.334.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.004.20
state index1.29-0.44
sterile dominance v11.11-0.43
threat rate (last 10)0.260.23
threat rate (last 3)0.220.23
threat rate (last 5)0.240.26
venue ppg (last 5)3.000.80