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Kardemir Karabukspor 1–4 Bursaspor

← Süper Lig 2017 · Sat, Apr 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Serkan Cinar, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bursaspor win73%1.33
Draw18%5.30
Kardemir Karabukspor win9%10.95

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

24'🟨Pablo Batalla · Bursaspor
35'⚽Pablo Batalla · Bursaspor
38'🟨İshak Doğan · Kardemir Karabukspor
41'🟨Moussa Sow · Bursaspor
45'🟨Ertuğrul Ersoy · Bursaspor
45'⚽Murat Akin · Kardemir Karabukspor
45'⚽ (pen)Moussa Sow · Bursaspor
60'⚽Barış Yardımcı · Bursaspor
73'🟨Abdullahi Shehu · Bursaspor
83'🟨Osman Çelik · Kardemir Karabukspor
90'🟥Luis Ibáñez · Kardemir Karabukspor
90'⚽ (pen)Bogdan Stancu · Bursaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2
5Shots8
3On target6
2Corners3
16Fouls21
2Yellow cards4
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKardemir KarabuksporBursaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.17
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.410.25
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.420.74
cards avg (last 5)1.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueDr. Necmettin Şeyhoğlu Stadium
2.00
coach days51.00324.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.09
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.404.20
corners against avg (last 5)6.602.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.206.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.043.54
defensive leak (last 5)0.210.23
dominance (last 5)0.390.51
elo1329.351439.67
elo momentum (last 5)-35.41-25.43
eye test v1-0.71-0.80
eye trend v10.13-0.05
first sub minute (last 10)47.2055.90
form points (last 5)0.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-2.00-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)2.201.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.200.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.700.52
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.000.20
keeper form v10.550.59
league points15.0034.00
league rank21.0019.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet11.004.00
matches since win11.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.8076.00
possession avg (last 5)43.8055.80
rest days7.006.00
scorer concentration0.380.22
season ppg0.430.97
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.000.20
shots for avg (last 5)7.207.00
skill v1-0.280.35
sot against avg (last 5)5.803.40
sot for avg (last 10)2.602.90
sot for avg (last 3)2.672.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.602.60
squad age28.4227.11
state index-1.84-0.96
sterile dominance v10.180.68
threat rate (last 10)0.210.18
threat rate (last 3)0.160.20
threat rate (last 5)0.180.19
venue ppg (last 5)0.000.00