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Alanyaspor 3–1 Akhisarspor

← Süper Lig 2017 · Sun, Apr 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Halis Ozkahya, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Alanyaspor win50%1.93
Draw25%3.83
Akhisarspor win24%4.01

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

11'🟨Junior Fernandes · Alanyaspor
17'🟨Muğdat Çelik · Akhisarspor
22'🟨Welinton · Alanyaspor
24'⚽Emre Akbaba · Alanyaspor
44'⚽Junior Fernandes · Alanyaspor
54'🟨Caner Osmanpaşa · Akhisarspor
59'🟨Haydar Yılmaz · Alanyaspor
84'🟨Lucas Villafanez · Alanyaspor
90'⚽Muğdat Çelik · Akhisarspor
90'⚽Emre Akbaba · Alanyaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
16Shots4
8On target3
8Corners6
15Fouls18
4Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlanyasporAkhisarspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.46
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.46
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.450.50
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.15
box share (last 5)0.620.67
cards avg (last 5)1.602.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAlanya Oba Stadyumu
coach days97.00403.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.22
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.80-1.40
corners against avg (last 5)3.005.60
corners for avg (last 5)2.204.20
corners volatility (last 10)5.442.36
defensive leak (last 5)0.170.15
dominance (last 5)0.620.46
elo1504.851531.33
elo momentum (last 5)63.03-9.77
eye test v10.670.21
eye trend v1-0.290.14
first sub minute (last 10)53.2056.80
form points (last 5)10.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.20-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.802.00
goals for avg (last 5)2.001.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.581.17
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.40
keeper form v10.680.67
league points31.0037.00
league rank19.0013.00
matches since blank0.008.00
matches since clean sheet4.005.00
matches since win2.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)69.8070.00
possession avg (last 5)39.2041.00
rest days8.007.00
scorer concentration0.220.17
season ppg0.971.16
shot diff avg (last 5)3.60-1.60
shots for avg (last 5)9.408.20
skill v1-1.42-1.28
sot against avg (last 5)3.404.20
sot for avg (last 10)5.504.40
sot for avg (last 3)4.335.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.805.00
squad age27.8829.62
state index0.63-0.31
sterile dominance v1-1.72-0.94
threat rate (last 10)0.320.23
threat rate (last 3)0.360.28
threat rate (last 5)0.350.26
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.40