⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Kardemir Karabukspor 1–2 Antalyaspor

← Süper Lig 2017 · Sat, Apr 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Koray Gencerler, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Antalyaspor win60%1.61
Draw23%4.24
Kardemir Karabukspor win17%5.56

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

12'⚽Diego Angelo · Antalyaspor
68'⚽ (pen)Ergin Keleş · Kardemir Karabukspor
83'⚽Deniz Kadah · Antalyaspor
90'🟨Osman Çelik · Kardemir Karabukspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
7Shots8
4On target4
3Corners4
18Fouls15
1Yellow cards0
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKardemir KarabuksporAntalyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.400.39
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
box share (last 5)0.420.58
cards avg (last 5)2.202.80
coach days37.0096.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.14
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueDr. Necmettin Şeyhoğlu Stadium
corner diff avg (last 5)-5.20-0.80
corners against avg (last 5)8.006.40
corners for avg (last 5)2.805.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.322.05
defensive leak (last 5)0.280.21
dominance (last 5)0.380.58
elo1345.741548.08
elo momentum (last 5)-40.825.38
eye test v1-0.640.46
eye trend v10.210.38
first sub minute (last 10)47.8062.80
form points (last 5)0.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-4.000.00
goals against avg (last 5)4.402.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.402.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.701.27
h2 goals (last 10)0.300.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.000.25
keeper form v10.500.55
league points15.0038.00
league rank21.0012.00
matches since blank0.005.00
matches since clean sheet8.000.00
matches since win8.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.2075.40
possession avg (last 5)41.0048.20
rest days8.007.00
scorer concentration0.380.20
season ppg0.471.19
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.803.40
shots for avg (last 5)8.0011.40
skill v1-0.43-0.23
sot against avg (last 5)7.004.00
sot for avg (last 10)2.604.70
sot for avg (last 3)2.336.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.805.40
squad age27.3428.59
state index-1.940.22
sterile dominance v1-0.28-0.66
threat rate (last 10)0.220.27
threat rate (last 3)0.190.33
threat rate (last 5)0.220.31
venue ppg (last 5)0.601.40