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Kayserispor 0–5 Fenerbahce

← Süper Lig 2017 · Mon, Apr 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Umit Ozturk, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fenerbahce win60%1.63
Draw22%4.35
Kayserispor win18%5.41

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

8'⚽Roberto Soldado · Fenerbahce
12'⚽Aatif Chahechouhe · Fenerbahce
23'🟨Gonzalo Espinoza · Kayserispor
26'🟨Hasan Ali Kaldırım · Fenerbahce
44'⚽Roberto Soldado · Fenerbahce
55'🟨Aatif Chahechouhe · Fenerbahce
58'⚽Şener Özbayraklı · Fenerbahce
64'🟨Oleksandr Kucher · Kayserispor
86'⚽Giuliano · Fenerbahce

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score3
8Shots12
3On target7
7Corners4
9Fouls9
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKayserisporFenerbahce
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.220.44
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.070.42
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.150.51
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.580.58
cards avg (last 5)2.001.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueKadir Has Stadium
coach days456.00305.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d1.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.21
corner diff avg (last 5)3.001.00
corners against avg (last 5)3.405.60
corners for avg (last 5)6.406.60
corners volatility (last 10)3.773.74
defensive leak (last 5)0.250.11
dominance (last 5)0.390.49
elo1544.881741.69
elo momentum (last 5)-7.89-25.57
eye test v1-0.900.20
eye trend v1-0.19-0.35
first sub minute (last 10)56.6057.40
form points (last 5)9.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.170.97
h2 goals (last 10)0.701.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.45
keeper form v10.630.77
league points46.0056.00
league rank9.006.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet7.000.00
matches since win1.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.2074.80
possession avg (last 5)58.6052.20
rest days14.9615.92
scorer concentration0.390.20
season ppg1.481.81
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.40-0.60
shots for avg (last 5)7.208.20
skill v11.08-0.02
sot against avg (last 5)4.404.60
sot for avg (last 10)2.905.40
sot for avg (last 3)1.674.67
sot for avg (last 5)2.404.80
squad age30.2229.10
state index-0.090.40
sterile dominance v11.070.39
threat rate (last 10)0.190.25
threat rate (last 3)0.170.20
threat rate (last 5)0.190.20
venue ppg (last 5)2.002.00