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Yeni Malatyaspor 4–1 Genclerbirligi

← Süper Lig 2017 · Sat, Mar 31, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Arda Kardesler, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Yeni Malatyaspor win42%2.30
Draw32%2.99
Genclerbirligi win26%3.76

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

9'⚽Stéphane Sessègnon · Genclerbirligi
26'🟨Adem Büyük · Yeni Malatyaspor
32'🟨Abdulrahman Khalili · Genclerbirligi
33'⚽Aytaç Kara · Yeni Malatyaspor
70'⚽Michael Pereira · Yeni Malatyaspor
80'⚽Gilberto · Yeni Malatyaspor
90'⚽Gilberto · Yeni Malatyaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
8Shots4
7On target3
7Corners4
15Fouls13
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricYeni MalatyasporGenclerbirligi
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.280.44
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.40
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
box share (last 5)0.430.63
cards avg (last 5)1.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueYeni Malatya Stadyumu
1.60
coach days211.00515.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.09
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.40-1.40
corners against avg (last 5)5.206.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.804.60
corners volatility (last 10)4.142.21
defensive leak (last 5)0.170.10
dominance (last 5)0.530.53
elo1518.471542.44
elo momentum (last 5)0.20-7.35
eye test v1-0.03-0.07
eye trend v1-0.04-0.15
first sub minute (last 10)54.6040.50
form points (last 5)7.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.881.03
h2 goals (last 10)0.401.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.25
keeper form v10.740.82
league points38.0032.00
league rank11.0015.00
matches since blank1.001.00
matches since clean sheet2.005.00
matches since win2.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.2072.00
possession avg (last 5)45.6044.40
rest days12.9613.96
scorer concentration0.460.21
season ppg1.271.07
shot diff avg (last 5)1.400.40
shots for avg (last 5)8.808.00
skill v1-0.22-0.84
sot against avg (last 5)4.205.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.804.10
sot for avg (last 3)3.673.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.204.60
squad age27.3827.71
state index-0.07-0.18
sterile dominance v1-0.22-0.53
threat rate (last 10)0.240.26
threat rate (last 3)0.280.18
threat rate (last 5)0.240.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.20