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Sivasspor 1–0 Kardemir Karabukspor

← Süper Lig 2017 · Fri, Mar 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Ali Sansalan, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sivasspor win81%1.20
Draw12%8.05
Kardemir Karabukspor win7%13.05

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

18'🟨Hakan Aslantaş · Kardemir Karabukspor
29'🟨John Boye · Sivasspor
33'🟨Robinho · Sivasspor
47'⚽Thievy Bifouma · Sivasspor
77'🟨Andriy Bliznichenko · Kardemir Karabukspor
88'🟨Cyriac · Sivasspor
90'🟨İshak Doğan · Kardemir Karabukspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
9Shots6
4On target2
10Corners1
15Fouls15
3Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSivassporKardemir Karabukspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.470.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.610.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.560.31
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.00
box share (last 5)0.600.51
cards avg (last 5)1.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueYeni 4 Eylül Stadyumu
2.40
coach days394.0029.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.260.12
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.80-2.80
corners against avg (last 5)3.206.40
corners for avg (last 5)2.403.60
corners volatility (last 10)1.522.45
defensive leak (last 5)0.190.35
dominance (last 5)0.450.42
elo1568.081349.09
elo momentum (last 5)-9.58-45.18
eye test v10.49-0.57
eye trend v10.350.04
first sub minute (last 10)53.1049.70
form points (last 5)5.000.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-4.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.404.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.600.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.350.70
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.00
keeper form v10.700.44
league points48.0015.00
league rank8.0021.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet13.007.00
matches since win3.007.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.4077.40
possession avg (last 5)53.8042.60
rest days12.9613.96
scorer concentration0.230.38
season ppg1.550.48
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.80-3.40
shots for avg (last 5)7.208.80
skill v10.56-0.41
sot against avg (last 5)4.406.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.702.80
sot for avg (last 3)6.332.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.202.80
squad age28.6627.38
state index-0.02-2.10
sterile dominance v10.77-0.44
threat rate (last 10)0.220.23
threat rate (last 3)0.220.21
threat rate (last 5)0.180.25
venue ppg (last 5)2.200.00