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Alanyaspor 1–1 Goztep

← Süper Lig 2017 · Sun, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Ozgur Yankaya, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Alanyaspor win54%1.79
Draw24%4.04
Goztep win22%4.48

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

31'🟨Georgios Tzavellas · Alanyaspor
57'🟨Sabri Sarioğlu · Goztep
74'🟨André Castro · Goztep
76'⚽Douglas · Alanyaspor
82'⚽Demba Ba · Goztep
85'🟨Tanju Kayhan · Goztep
89'🟨Tayfur Bingöl · Goztep

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
10Shots3
4On target2
8Corners1
16Fouls21
1Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlanyasporGoztep
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.410.47
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.580.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.520.41
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.630.49
cards avg (last 5)2.202.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAlanya Oba Stadyumu
coach days76.00260.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.14
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.40-1.60
corners against avg (last 5)3.806.00
corners for avg (last 5)1.404.40
corners volatility (last 10)5.281.49
defensive leak (last 5)0.250.13
dominance (last 5)0.600.35
elo1509.841484.17
elo momentum (last 5)57.780.29
eye test v11.69-0.25
eye trend v10.57-0.12
first sub minute (last 10)55.2057.20
form points (last 5)9.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.60-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.60
goals for avg (last 5)2.000.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.480.99
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.40
keeper form v10.720.76
league points30.0039.00
league rank19.0010.00
matches since blank4.001.00
matches since clean sheet2.003.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.6075.60
possession avg (last 5)45.2049.40
rest days8.927.00
scorer concentration0.230.26
season ppg1.001.34
shot diff avg (last 5)5.00-6.00
shots for avg (last 5)11.406.60
skill v1-0.62-0.13
sot against avg (last 5)4.207.80
sot for avg (last 10)5.604.30
sot for avg (last 3)7.674.00
sot for avg (last 5)8.003.80
squad age27.8328.25
state index0.52-0.63
sterile dominance v1-1.420.19
threat rate (last 10)0.300.20
threat rate (last 3)0.380.25
threat rate (last 5)0.380.21
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.20