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Goztep 2–1 Antalyaspor

← Süper Lig 2017 · Sun, Mar 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Firat Aydinus, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Goztep win41%2.36
Antalyaspor win33%2.97
Draw26%3.69

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

19'🟨André Poko · Goztep
36'🟨William Vainqueur · Antalyaspor
36'⚽Demba Ba · Goztep
42'🟨Selçuk Şahin · Goztep
54'🟨Hakan Özmert · Antalyaspor
64'🟨Diego Angelo · Antalyaspor
66'🟨Sakıb Aytaç · Antalyaspor
70'🟨Emre Güral · Antalyaspor
74'⚽Demba Ba · Goztep
76'🟨Rajko Rotman · Goztep
80'⚽Souleymane Doukara · Antalyaspor
89'🟥Ondřej Čelůstka · Antalyaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
9Shots15
6On target8
5Corners7
9Fouls10
3Yellow cards5
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGoztepAntalyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.440.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.31
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.420.59
cards avg (last 5)2.802.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBornova Stadyumu
coach days253.0069.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.11
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.80-1.00
corners against avg (last 5)5.805.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.004.40
corners volatility (last 10)1.432.98
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.30
dominance (last 5)0.330.64
elo1474.491523.37
elo momentum (last 5)-11.55-28.05
eye test v1-0.540.07
eye trend v1-0.380.40
first sub minute (last 10)57.6057.40
form points (last 5)4.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.20-1.60
goals against avg (last 5)2.002.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.800.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.921.14
h2 goals (last 10)0.300.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.20
keeper form v10.660.63
league points36.0029.00
league rank12.0018.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet2.001.00
matches since win2.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.2075.80
possession avg (last 5)46.4050.60
rest days8.007.00
scorer concentration0.280.21
season ppg1.291.04
shot diff avg (last 5)-7.005.00
shots for avg (last 5)6.0010.80
skill v1-0.58-0.03
sot against avg (last 5)7.803.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.304.40
sot for avg (last 3)2.675.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.604.60
squad age29.6228.37
state index-0.56-0.59
sterile dominance v10.01-0.24
threat rate (last 10)0.200.25
threat rate (last 3)0.180.31
threat rate (last 5)0.190.27
venue ppg (last 5)2.200.40