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Genclerbirligi 0–1 Alanyaspor

← Süper Lig 2017 · Sun, Mar 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Baris Simsek, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Genclerbirligi win45%2.17
Draw28%3.47
Alanyaspor win27%3.62

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

30'🟨Uğur Çiftçi · Genclerbirligi
53'🟨Lucas Villafanez · Alanyaspor
66'⚽Mbilla Etame · Alanyaspor
81'🟨Luccas Claro · Genclerbirligi
82'🟨Mamadou Fofana · Alanyaspor
89'🟨Jailton Paraiba · Genclerbirligi
90'🟨Stéphane Sessègnon · Genclerbirligi

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
4Shots7
3On target5
6Corners1
15Fouls18
4Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGenclerbirligiAlanyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.42
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.44
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.280.38
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.10
box share (last 5)0.580.54
cards avg (last 5)1.602.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAnkara 19 Mayıs Stadyumu
coach days488.0062.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.180.09
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.602.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.004.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.406.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.544.88
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.29
dominance (last 5)0.600.59
elo1561.801441.82
elo momentum (last 5)32.02-17.96
eye test v1-0.101.06
eye trend v10.180.60
first sub minute (last 10)47.3055.60
form points (last 5)7.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.60-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.030.99
h2 goals (last 10)1.300.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.25
keeper form v10.820.39
league points31.0021.00
league rank14.0020.00
matches since blank3.001.00
matches since clean sheet2.0013.00
matches since win2.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)71.2076.60
possession avg (last 5)41.6050.40
rest days5.928.00
scorer concentration0.180.23
season ppg1.150.78
shot diff avg (last 5)2.604.80
shots for avg (last 5)9.8011.20
skill v1-1.120.04
sot against avg (last 5)3.403.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.705.60
sot for avg (last 3)6.008.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.406.60
squad age27.3927.05
state index0.53-0.82
sterile dominance v1-1.30-0.76
threat rate (last 10)0.310.28
threat rate (last 3)0.360.41
threat rate (last 5)0.320.34
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.00