⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Besiktas 3–1 Fenerbahce

← Süper Lig 2017 · Sun, Feb 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Cuneyt Cakir, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Besiktas win44%2.20
Draw28%3.43
Fenerbahce win28%3.52

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

8'⚽Fernandão · Fenerbahce
33'🟨Mauricio Isla · Fenerbahce
38'🟨Şener Özbayraklı · Fenerbahce
39'🟨Domagoj Vida · Besiktas
49'⚽Domagoj Vida · Besiktas
50'🟨Tolgay Arslan · Besiktas
77'⚽Ricardo Quaresma · Besiktas
90'🟨Ricardo Quaresma · Besiktas
90'⚽Ricardo Quaresma · Besiktas

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
15Shots7
6On target6
6Corners1
15Fouls22
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBesiktasFenerbahce
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.420.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.550.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.520.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.580.73
cards avg (last 5)2.801.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueVodafone Park
coach days1000.00269.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.170.20
corner diff avg (last 5)1.801.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.403.20
corners for avg (last 5)6.205.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.223.11
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.14
dominance (last 5)0.660.67
elo1774.631767.25
elo momentum (last 5)-3.0432.40
eye test v12.100.40
eye trend v10.22-0.10
first sub minute (last 10)59.5059.70
form points (last 5)11.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.401.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.60
goals for avg (last 5)2.402.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.510.94
h2 goals (last 10)1.101.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.45
keeper form v10.770.69
league points49.0051.00
league rank2.001.00
matches since blank11.0015.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.2076.80
possession avg (last 5)60.2052.40
rest days9.008.00
scorer concentration0.220.17
season ppg1.881.96
shot diff avg (last 5)7.005.60
shots for avg (last 5)13.8010.80
skill v11.080.19
sot against avg (last 5)3.402.80
sot for avg (last 10)8.105.70
sot for avg (last 3)10.675.33
sot for avg (last 5)9.405.00
squad age29.6328.97
state index1.251.35
sterile dominance v10.31-0.26
threat rate (last 10)0.310.28
threat rate (last 3)0.320.32
threat rate (last 5)0.300.29
venue ppg (last 5)3.002.20