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Yeni Malatyaspor 3–1 Kardemir Karabukspor

← Süper Lig 2017 · Sun, Feb 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bahattin Simsek, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Yeni Malatyaspor win58%1.67
Draw25%3.88
Kardemir Karabukspor win17%5.76

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

23'⚽Dória · Yeni Malatyaspor
31'🟨Dória · Yeni Malatyaspor
34'🟨Emanuel Dening · Yeni Malatyaspor
37'🟨Luis Ibáñez · Kardemir Karabukspor
40'🟨— · Kardemir Karabukspor
51'🟨Herve Kage · Kardemir Karabukspor
58'🟨Cem Özdemir · Kardemir Karabukspor
60'⚽Khalid Boutaïb · Yeni Malatyaspor
69'⚽Nacer Barazite · Yeni Malatyaspor
90'⚽ (pen)Leandro Barrios · Kardemir Karabukspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
14Shots10
8On target6
2Corners5
7Fouls16
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricYeni MalatyasporKardemir Karabukspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.430.17
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.27
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.540.54
cards avg (last 5)2.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueYeni Malatya Stadyumu
2.40
coach days177.00147.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.03
corner diff avg (last 5)1.40-1.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.604.60
corners for avg (last 5)6.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.434.25
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.25
dominance (last 5)0.400.37
elo1518.821394.27
elo momentum (last 5)-5.19-15.66
eye test v1-0.62-1.02
eye trend v1-0.15-0.30
first sub minute (last 10)56.9056.20
form points (last 5)6.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-3.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.003.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.800.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.740.42
h2 goals (last 10)0.200.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.05
keeper form v10.780.61
league points32.0015.00
league rank12.0021.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win4.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.6074.60
possession avg (last 5)45.2043.20
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.420.45
season ppg1.230.58
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.40-5.80
shots for avg (last 5)5.806.20
skill v1-0.63-0.66
sot against avg (last 5)4.007.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.603.50
sot for avg (last 3)3.002.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.002.40
squad age26.8228.21
state index-0.19-1.44
sterile dominance v1-0.23-0.22
threat rate (last 10)0.240.25
threat rate (last 3)0.170.23
threat rate (last 5)0.220.21
venue ppg (last 5)2.200.00