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Bursaspor 0–0 Yeni Malatyaspor

← Süper Lig 2017 · Sun, Feb 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Ali Palabiyik, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bursaspor win46%2.12
Draw29%3.38
Yeni Malatyaspor win25%3.81

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

26'🟨Aziz Behich · Bursaspor
45'🟨Yusuf Erdoğan · Bursaspor
45'🟨Adem Büyük · Yeni Malatyaspor
45'🟨Sadık Çiftpınar · Yeni Malatyaspor
73'🟨Gheorghe Grozav · Bursaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
7Shots3
4On target3
9Corners2
17Fouls15
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBursasporYeni Malatyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.410.24
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.00
box share (last 5)0.520.68
cards avg (last 5)2.202.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBursa Büyükşehir Stadyumu
coach days262.00170.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.15
corner diff avg (last 5)0.802.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.003.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.806.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.073.51
defensive leak (last 5)0.270.10
dominance (last 5)0.420.41
elo1476.971518.28
elo momentum (last 5)-34.75-4.92
eye test v1-0.65-0.46
eye trend v10.17-0.35
first sub minute (last 10)60.4055.70
form points (last 5)1.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.80-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.600.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.100.74
h2 goals (last 10)0.100.20
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.20
keeper form v10.650.76
league points27.0031.00
league rank14.0011.00
matches since blank0.004.00
matches since clean sheet8.003.00
matches since win8.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.0073.60
possession avg (last 5)51.2044.60
rest days7.008.92
scorer concentration0.180.42
season ppg1.081.24
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.40-2.80
shots for avg (last 5)6.006.20
skill v10.03-0.67
sot against avg (last 5)4.804.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.003.80
sot for avg (last 3)3.332.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.003.40
squad age27.4126.66
state index-1.24-0.36
sterile dominance v10.49-0.45
threat rate (last 10)0.210.26
threat rate (last 3)0.170.23
threat rate (last 5)0.180.24
venue ppg (last 5)0.401.00