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Kardemir Karabukspor 0–3 Akhisarspor

← Süper Lig 2017 · Sun, Feb 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Volkan Bayarslan, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Akhisarspor win47%2.07
Draw28%3.52
Kardemir Karabukspor win26%3.80

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

41'⚽Mustafa Yumlu · Akhisarspor
58'⚽Muğdat Çelik · Akhisarspor
64'🟨Ergin Keleş · Kardemir Karabukspor
66'🟨— · Kardemir Karabukspor
69'🟨Soner Aydoğdu · Akhisarspor
74'🟨Ferhat Görgülü · Kardemir Karabukspor
74'⚽ (pen)Soner Aydoğdu · Akhisarspor
76'🟨Osman Çelik · Kardemir Karabukspor
81'🟨Abdoul Sissoko · Akhisarspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
10Shots6
3On target5
2Corners1
18Fouls12
4Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKardemir KarabuksporAkhisarspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.28
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.290.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.35
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.530.55
cards avg (last 5)2.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueDr. Necmettin Şeyhoğlu Stadium
2.60
coach days140.00354.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.050.15
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.801.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.803.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.004.80
corners volatility (last 10)4.172.94
defensive leak (last 5)0.170.19
dominance (last 5)0.360.47
elo1409.611512.71
elo momentum (last 5)-14.25-16.45
eye test v1-0.91-0.45
eye trend v1-0.270.54
first sub minute (last 10)57.2055.70
form points (last 5)3.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-3.20-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)3.401.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.200.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.480.88
h2 goals (last 10)0.300.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.15
keeper form v10.640.71
league points15.0027.00
league rank21.0014.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.8073.00
possession avg (last 5)41.6048.00
rest days8.007.00
scorer concentration0.450.22
season ppg0.601.08
shot diff avg (last 5)-6.20-2.20
shots for avg (last 5)6.207.40
skill v1-0.96-0.50
sot against avg (last 5)7.004.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.602.50
sot for avg (last 3)2.004.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.803.60
squad age28.0429.58
state index-1.24-0.52
sterile dominance v1-0.40-0.11
threat rate (last 10)0.240.20
threat rate (last 3)0.180.25
threat rate (last 5)0.210.22
venue ppg (last 5)0.800.20