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Alanyaspor 1–2 Konyaspor

← Süper Lig 2017 · Sun, Feb 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Firat Aydinus, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Alanyaspor win39%2.47
Konyaspor win33%2.96
Draw28%3.48

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

20'🟨Welinton · Alanyaspor
20'🟨Rémy Riou · Alanyaspor
21'⚽ (pen)Samuel Eto'o · Konyaspor
25'⚽Douglas · Alanyaspor
40'⚽Ömer Ali Şahiner · Konyaspor
48'🟨Petar Filipovic · Konyaspor
58'🟨Wilfried Moke · Konyaspor
64'🟨Wilfried Moke · Konyaspor
64'🟥Wilfried Moke · Konyaspor
80'🟨Serkan Kırıntılı · Konyaspor
81'🟨Georgios Tzavellas · Alanyaspor
90'🟨Junior Fernandes · Alanyaspor
90'🟨Jens Jønsson · Konyaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2
23Shots4
11On target4
18Corners1
12Fouls10
4Yellow cards5
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlanyasporKonyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.270.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.510.51
cards avg (last 5)1.402.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAlanya Oba Stadyumu
coach days41.00133.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.180.14
corner diff avg (last 5)-4.001.00
corners against avg (last 5)8.204.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.205.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.112.39
defensive leak (last 5)0.180.15
dominance (last 5)0.460.44
elo1463.291480.74
elo momentum (last 5)-21.0712.97
eye test v1-0.57-0.47
eye trend v1-0.300.15
first sub minute (last 10)50.4050.00
form points (last 5)3.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.201.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.050.67
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.25
keeper form v10.420.73
league points21.0018.00
league rank19.0020.00
matches since blank0.005.00
matches since clean sheet10.006.00
matches since win1.006.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.6070.40
possession avg (last 5)46.8043.40
rest days8.007.00
scorer concentration0.250.18
season ppg0.880.75
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.20-2.20
shots for avg (last 5)7.808.00
skill v1-0.31-1.09
sot against avg (last 5)5.605.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.304.00
sot for avg (last 3)3.004.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.203.40
squad age26.9129.33
state index-0.46-0.57
sterile dominance v1-0.12-0.83
threat rate (last 10)0.250.27
threat rate (last 3)0.250.26
threat rate (last 5)0.230.27
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.20