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Besiktas 5–0 Kardemir Karabukspor

← Süper Lig 2017 · Sat, Feb 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bulent Yildirim, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Besiktas win85%1.14
Draw10%9.95
Kardemir Karabukspor win5%19.00

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

14'⚽Pepê · Besiktas
27'⚽Anderson Talisca · Besiktas
37'🟨Osman Çelik · Kardemir Karabukspor
45'🟨Oğuzhan Özyakup · Besiktas
59'⚽Vagner Love · Besiktas
68'🟨Atiba Hutchinson · Besiktas
78'🟨Adriano · Besiktas
83'⚽Anderson Talisca · Besiktas
90'⚽Vagner Love · Besiktas

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
20Shots4
13On target1
7Corners5
14Fouls14
3Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBesiktasKardemir Karabukspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.540.40
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.490.37
box share (last 5)0.620.50
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days985.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueVodafone Park
132.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.603.81
elo1683.991376.11
elo momentum (last 5)-3.16-8.52
eye test v11.80-0.43
eye trend v10.06-0.11
first sub minute (last 10)58.7059.30
form points (last 5)10.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.00-1.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.402.00
goals for avg (last 5)2.400.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.520.52
keeper form v10.810.63
league points37.0012.00
league rank4.0018.00
matches since blank7.001.00
matches since clean sheet6.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.2072.80
possession avg (last 5)61.8042.60
rest days7.967.23
scorer concentration0.230.45
season ppg1.850.60
skill v11.40-0.89
sot against avg (last 5)5.005.00
sot for avg (last 10)6.904.10
sot for avg (last 3)8.003.33
sot for avg (last 5)8.403.60
state index0.74-0.96
sterile dominance v10.59-0.55
threat rate (last 10)0.300.25
threat rate (last 3)0.260.19
threat rate (last 5)0.280.24
venue ppg (last 5)2.200.00