⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Goztep 3–3 Osmanlispor

← Süper Lig 2017 · Sat, Feb 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Arda Kardesler, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Goztep win41%2.36
Osmanlispor win30%3.21
Draw29%3.38

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

23'⚽Demba Ba · Goztep
30'🟨Ceyhun Gülselam · Osmanlispor
35'⚽Yoan Gouffran · Goztep
41'🟨Avdija Vršajević · Osmanlispor
43'⚽Özer Hurmacı · Osmanlispor
52'🟨Kadu · Goztep
59'⚽Sokol Cikalleshi · Osmanlispor
69'🟨Aminu Umar · Osmanlispor
75'🟨Özer Hurmacı · Osmanlispor
76'🟨André Castro · Goztep
83'🟨Beto · Goztep
84'⚽André Castro · Goztep
89'🟨Sabri Sarioğlu · Goztep
90'⚽ (pen)Sokol Cikalleshi · Osmanlispor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
9Shots13
5On target7
3Corners6
13Fouls13
4Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGoztepOsmanlispor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.470.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.410.23
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.500.32
box share (last 5)0.400.58
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days224.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBornova Stadyumu
254.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.002.39
elo1534.431429.33
elo momentum (last 5)-9.88-11.10
eye test v10.110.21
eye trend v1-0.27-0.59
first sub minute (last 10)60.6056.80
form points (last 5)5.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-1.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.202.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.800.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.881.34
keeper form v10.750.69
league points32.0018.00
league rank6.0016.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win4.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.8076.20
possession avg (last 5)48.6047.80
rest days4.736.00
scorer concentration0.320.30
season ppg1.600.90
skill v1-0.38-0.18
sot against avg (last 5)4.405.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.704.80
sot for avg (last 3)3.673.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.804.80
state index-0.24-0.93
sterile dominance v10.09-0.56
threat rate (last 10)0.210.29
threat rate (last 3)0.210.28
threat rate (last 5)0.200.30
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.00