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Fenerbahce 2–2 Genclerbirligi

← Süper Lig 2017 · Sat, Feb 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Mete Kalkavan, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fenerbahce win63%1.55
Draw24%4.11
Genclerbirligi win14%7.11

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

16'🟨Kamal Issah · Genclerbirligi
44'🟨Sergei Politevich · Genclerbirligi
45'🟨Jailton Paraiba · Genclerbirligi
45'⚽ (og)Nabil Dirar · Genclerbirligi
46'⚽Alper Potuk · Fenerbahce
50'🟨Roberto Soldado · Fenerbahce
61'⚽Nabil Dirar · Fenerbahce
67'🟨Oğuz Kağan Güçtekin · Fenerbahce
69'⚽Marko Milinkovic · Genclerbirligi
76'🟨Nabil Dirar · Fenerbahce
89'🟨Luccas Claro · Genclerbirligi
90'🟨Deniz Yilmaz · Genclerbirligi

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
15Shots6
4On target1
4Corners3
16Fouls18
3Yellow cards6
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFenerbahceGenclerbirligi
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.410.39
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.38
box share (last 5)0.550.57
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days247.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueŞükrü Saracoğlu Stadı
459.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.592.92
elo1645.481476.27
elo momentum (last 5)12.8425.80
eye test v10.54-0.37
eye trend v1-0.050.06
first sub minute (last 10)53.9052.40
form points (last 5)11.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.800.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.600.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.251.23
keeper form v10.690.69
league points37.0020.00
league rank3.0015.00
matches since blank10.003.00
matches since clean sheet3.001.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.8068.40
possession avg (last 5)59.4040.80
rest days6.007.96
scorer concentration0.170.22
season ppg1.951.05
skill v11.08-1.47
sot against avg (last 5)3.003.00
sot for avg (last 10)5.603.80
sot for avg (last 3)6.003.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.403.80
state index0.820.14
sterile dominance v10.82-1.06
threat rate (last 10)0.260.27
threat rate (last 3)0.250.27
threat rate (last 5)0.230.26
venue ppg (last 5)2.601.00