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Kardemir Karabukspor 1–0 Alanyaspor

← Süper Lig 2017 · Sat, Feb 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Arda Kardesler, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Alanyaspor win47%2.07
Kardemir Karabukspor win27%3.59
Draw26%3.72

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

14'🟨Anton Kravchenko · Kardemir Karabukspor
16'🟨Marius Alexe · Kardemir Karabukspor
34'🟨Lucas Villafanez · Alanyaspor
51'🟨Andriy Bliznichenko · Kardemir Karabukspor
71'🟨Hakan Aslantaş · Kardemir Karabukspor
71'🟨Filipe Augusto · Alanyaspor
74'🟨Luis Ibáñez · Kardemir Karabukspor
79'⚽Marius Alexe · Kardemir Karabukspor
90'🟨Herve Kage · Kardemir Karabukspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
6Shots7
4On target3
8Corners5
14Fouls13
6Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKardemir KarabuksporAlanyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.390.20
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.470.46
cards avg (last 5)3.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueDr. Necmettin Şeyhoğlu Stadium
1.40
coach days125.0033.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.020.18
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.80-3.40
corners against avg (last 5)5.407.00
corners for avg (last 5)3.603.60
corners volatility (last 10)4.082.45
defensive leak (last 5)0.200.20
dominance (last 5)0.390.47
elo1402.491473.61
elo momentum (last 5)-19.56-10.80
eye test v1-0.59-0.03
eye trend v10.03-0.51
first sub minute (last 10)59.7051.30
form points (last 5)1.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-2.80-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)3.002.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.201.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.420.99
h2 goals (last 10)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.20
keeper form v10.580.70
league points12.0021.00
league rank21.0018.00
matches since blank0.005.00
matches since clean sheet13.009.00
matches since win13.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.8076.60
possession avg (last 5)44.6047.60
rest days4.927.00
scorer concentration0.500.25
season ppg0.520.91
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.20-1.80
shots for avg (last 5)7.009.00
skill v1-0.76-0.16
sot against avg (last 5)5.606.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.904.30
sot for avg (last 3)3.332.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.204.40
squad age26.9327.39
state index-1.72-0.55
sterile dominance v1-0.41-0.23
threat rate (last 10)0.250.26
threat rate (last 3)0.210.25
threat rate (last 5)0.230.25
venue ppg (last 5)0.200.00