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Akhisarspor 1–1 Antalyaspor

← Süper Lig 2017 · Sun, Jan 28, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bulent Yildirim, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Akhisarspor win49%2.00
Draw27%3.61
Antalyaspor win25%3.94

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

21'⚽Emre Güral · Antalyaspor
26'🟨Charles · Antalyaspor
33'🟨Zeki Yildirim · Antalyaspor
35'🟨Danilo · Antalyaspor
41'🟨Bilal Kisa · Akhisarspor
72'🟨Nazım Sangaré · Antalyaspor
88'🟨Soner Aydoğdu · Akhisarspor
90'🟨Serginho · Akhisarspor
90'⚽Yevhen Seleznyov · Akhisarspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
10Shots2
5On target1
11Corners0
15Fouls16
3Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAkhisarsporAntalyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.31—
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.35—
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.24—
box share (last 5)0.51—
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days333.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueManisa 19 Mayis
27.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.662.67
elo1478.681482.12
elo momentum (last 5)-34.63-17.41
eye test v1-1.510.21
eye trend v10.260.08
first sub minute (last 10)54.7059.40
form points (last 5)2.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.00-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)2.002.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.100.99
keeper form v10.650.67
league points20.0017.00
league rank13.0016.00
matches since blank2.004.00
matches since clean sheet4.0012.00
matches since win10.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)70.8077.00
possession avg (last 5)43.2049.00
rest days7.106.88
scorer concentration0.250.28
season ppg1.110.94
skill v1-1.06-0.02
sot against avg (last 5)5.806.60
sot for avg (last 10)2.504.70
sot for avg (last 3)2.675.33
sot for avg (last 5)1.804.40
state index-0.97-0.57
sterile dominance v1-0.09-0.30
threat rate (last 10)0.180.27
threat rate (last 3)0.180.28
threat rate (last 5)0.170.28
venue ppg (last 5)1.000.20