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Goztep 1–1 Kayserispor

← Süper Lig 2017 · Sat, Jan 27, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Firat Aydinus, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Goztep win40%2.40
Kayserispor win31%3.12
Draw28%3.41

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

17'🟨Oleksandr Kucher · Kayserispor
20'⚽Stéphane Badji · Kayserispor
41'🟨Deniz Türüç · Kayserispor
45'🟨Atila Turan · Kayserispor
48'🟨Jean-Armel Kana-Biyik · Kayserispor
63'🟨André Poko · Goztep
72'⚽Tayfur Bingöl · Goztep
76'🟨Jean-Armel Kana-Biyik · Kayserispor
76'🟥Jean-Armel Kana-Biyik · Kayserispor
90'🟨Stéphane Badji · Kayserispor
90'🟨Stéphane Badji · Kayserispor
90'🟥Stéphane Badji · Kayserispor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
10Shots2
5On target1
2Corners1
11Fouls25
1Yellow cards7
0Red cards2

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGoztepKayserispor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.440.40
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.570.37
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.510.42
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.560.55
cards avg (last 5)2.002.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBornova Stadyumu
coach days210.00391.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d1.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.250.18
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.400.80
corners against avg (last 5)5.003.60
corners for avg (last 5)3.604.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.913.50
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.14
dominance (last 5)0.370.51
elo1479.651554.19
elo momentum (last 5)5.05-19.72
eye test v1-0.070.14
eye trend v10.25-0.08
first sub minute (last 10)59.2049.80
form points (last 5)6.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.790.74
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.30
keeper form v10.650.68
league points30.0032.00
league rank10.009.00
matches since blank7.002.00
matches since clean sheet3.003.00
matches since win3.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.4079.00
possession avg (last 5)45.0052.60
rest days7.004.92
scorer concentration0.330.42
season ppg1.431.45
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.60-0.20
shots for avg (last 5)6.608.00
skill v1-0.770.43
sot against avg (last 5)5.204.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.604.70
sot for avg (last 3)5.675.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.604.60
squad age28.8329.34
state index-0.36-0.12
sterile dominance v1-0.070.50
threat rate (last 10)0.210.24
threat rate (last 3)0.200.23
threat rate (last 5)0.190.21
venue ppg (last 5)1.402.00