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Genclerbirligi 2–1 Konyaspor

← Süper Lig 2017 · Fri, Jan 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Cuneyt Cakir, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Genclerbirligi win40%2.44
Draw31%3.18
Konyaspor win30%3.27

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

34'🟨Ferhat Öztorun · Konyaspor
39'⚽ (pen)Nejc Skubic · Konyaspor
46'⚽Stéphane Sessègnon · Genclerbirligi
52'🟥Petar Škuletić · Genclerbirligi
57'🟨Jailton Paraiba · Genclerbirligi
61'🟨Aleksandar Šćekić · Genclerbirligi
65'🟨Nejc Skubic · Konyaspor
66'⚽Alper Uludağ · Genclerbirligi
87'🟨Alper Uludağ · Genclerbirligi
90'🟨Jens Jønsson · Konyaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
9Shots5
4On target3
0Corners5
10Fouls27
3Yellow cards3
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGenclerbirligiKonyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.430.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.440.31
box share (last 5)0.630.53
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days451.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAnkara 19 Mayıs Stadyumu
117.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.532.53
elo1468.951433.56
elo momentum (last 5)37.6116.09
eye test v10.15-0.59
eye trend v1-0.02-0.05
first sub minute (last 10)54.0048.30
form points (last 5)9.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.200.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.340.67
keeper form v10.650.76
league points17.0016.00
league rank15.0017.00
matches since blank2.002.00
matches since clean sheet0.003.00
matches since win0.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)66.4069.40
possession avg (last 5)39.0038.80
rest days6.275.27
scorer concentration0.240.19
season ppg0.940.89
skill v1-1.81-1.51
sot against avg (last 5)3.405.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.004.20
sot for avg (last 3)4.003.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.003.40
state index0.42-0.32
sterile dominance v1-1.53-1.20
threat rate (last 10)0.270.29
threat rate (last 3)0.230.29
threat rate (last 5)0.300.27
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.40