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Sivasspor 1–1 Akhisarspor

← Süper Lig 2017 · Sun, Jan 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Huseyin Gocek, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sivasspor win48%2.02
Draw27%3.58
Akhisarspor win25%3.90

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

31'🟨Sergiy Rybalka · Sivasspor
52'⚽Hakan Arslan · Sivasspor
57'🟨Dany Nounkeu · Akhisarspor
67'🟨Dany Nounkeu · Akhisarspor
67'🟥Dany Nounkeu · Akhisarspor
72'⚽Olcan Adın · Akhisarspor
85'🟨Carl Medjani · Sivasspor
90'🟨Mert Hakan Yandaş · Sivasspor
90'🟨Muğdat Çelik · Akhisarspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
12Shots5
3On target4
4Corners2
14Fouls23
3Yellow cards3
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSivassporAkhisarspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.470.23
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.420.14
box share (last 5)0.550.50
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days326.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueYeni 4 Eylül Stadyumu
326.00
congestion 21d0.000.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.131.66
elo1507.371476.12
elo momentum (last 5)-2.23-50.20
eye test v10.34-1.82
eye trend v10.31-0.20
first sub minute (last 10)59.8055.70
form points (last 5)7.001.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-1.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.602.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.921.96
keeper form v10.880.64
league points26.0019.00
league rank8.0012.00
matches since blank3.001.00
matches since clean sheet2.003.00
matches since win0.009.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.0071.80
possession avg (last 5)44.4042.60
rest days28.8826.73
scorer concentration0.300.27
season ppg1.531.12
skill v1-0.75-1.00
sot against avg (last 5)6.206.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.703.20
sot for avg (last 3)5.002.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.001.20
state index0.08-1.21
sterile dominance v1-0.91-0.13
threat rate (last 10)0.260.21
threat rate (last 3)0.330.20
threat rate (last 5)0.300.18
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.20