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Konyaspor 2–2 Trabzonspor

← Süper Lig 2017 · Sun, Jan 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Mete Kalkavan, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Trabzonspor win36%2.67
Konyaspor win35%2.80
Draw29%3.35

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

18'🟥Ali Turan · Konyaspor
45'🟨Ömer Ali Şahiner · Konyaspor
67'🟨Dame N'Doye · Trabzonspor
72'🟨Ali Çamdalı · Konyaspor
72'🟨Tomáš Hubočan · Trabzonspor
77'⚽Deni Milošević · Konyaspor
83'⚽ (pen)Burak Yılmaz · Trabzonspor
90'🟨Petar Filipovic · Konyaspor
90'🟨Wilfried Moke · Konyaspor
90'🟨Uğur Demirok · Trabzonspor
90'🟨Tomáš Hubočan · Trabzonspor
90'🟥Tomáš Hubočan · Trabzonspor
90'⚽Burak Yılmaz · Trabzonspor
90'⚽Orkan Çınar · Konyaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
7Shots13
5On target5
6Corners1
11Fouls15
4Yellow cards4
1Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKonyasporTrabzonspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.260.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.300.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.35
box share (last 5)0.540.53
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days112.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueKonya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu
112.00
congestion 21d0.000.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.551.84
elo1431.301571.17
elo momentum (last 5)-4.8343.53
eye test v10.10-0.19
eye trend v10.25-0.10
first sub minute (last 10)48.3049.60
form points (last 5)5.0013.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.401.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.802.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.631.34
keeper form v10.790.70
league points15.0029.00
league rank17.007.00
matches since blank1.006.00
matches since clean sheet2.001.00
matches since win2.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.8077.40
possession avg (last 5)46.0050.80
rest days28.7527.98
scorer concentration0.210.37
season ppg0.881.71
skill v1-0.560.14
sot against avg (last 5)5.603.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.704.20
sot for avg (last 3)3.673.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.003.60
state index-0.360.88
sterile dominance v1-0.650.10
threat rate (last 10)0.270.24
threat rate (last 3)0.310.24
threat rate (last 5)0.280.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.60