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Antalyaspor 3–1 Alanyaspor

← Süper Lig 2017 · Fri, Dec 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Serkan Cinar, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Alanyaspor win36%2.72
Antalyaspor win36%2.74
Draw29%3.42

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

21'⚽Vagner Love · Alanyaspor
32'⚽Emre Güral · Antalyaspor
35'🟨Nazım Sangaré · Antalyaspor
38'🟨Mostapha El Kabir · Antalyaspor
40'🟨Efecan Karaca · Alanyaspor
45'🟨Deniz Kadah · Antalyaspor
51'⚽Deniz Kadah · Antalyaspor
72'🟨Vagner Love · Alanyaspor
84'⚽Emre Güral · Antalyaspor
85'🟨Emre Güral · Antalyaspor
90'🟨Yekta Kurtuluş · Antalyaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
17Shots9
11On target2
10Corners5
17Fouls16
5Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAntalyasporAlanyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.44
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.240.64
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.230.47
box share (last 5)0.590.61
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days447.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAntalya Stadyumu
1117.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.832.94
elo1476.721461.78
elo momentum (last 5)-31.73-29.15
eye test v1-0.700.18
eye trend v1-0.290.10
first sub minute (last 10)57.1055.40
form points (last 5)2.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.40-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.600.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.741.51
keeper form v10.650.73
league points14.0018.00
league rank16.0013.00
matches since blank2.001.00
matches since clean sheet10.004.00
matches since win5.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.8077.80
possession avg (last 5)50.8047.20
rest days5.256.15
scorer concentration0.360.26
season ppg0.881.13
skill v10.08-0.06
sot against avg (last 5)7.205.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.305.50
sot for avg (last 3)2.676.67
sot for avg (last 5)2.605.00
state index-0.83-0.84
sterile dominance v10.050.17
threat rate (last 10)0.250.29
threat rate (last 3)0.240.21
threat rate (last 5)0.240.20
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.80