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Besiktas 5–1 Osmanlispor

← Süper Lig 2017 · Sun, Dec 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Halil Umut Meler, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Besiktas win76%1.28
Draw16%6.11
Osmanlispor win8%11.82

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

7'🟨Raheem Lawal · Osmanlispor
25'🟨Serdar Gürler · Osmanlispor
32'⚽Ryan Babel · Besiktas
43'⚽Ryan Babel · Besiktas
52'⚽Ryan Babel · Besiktas
63'🟨Musa Çağıran · Osmanlispor
75'⚽Álvaro Negredo · Besiktas
85'🟨Caner Erkin · Besiktas
87'⚽Cenk Tosun · Besiktas
90'⚽Serdar Gürler · Osmanlispor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
18Shots8
10On target4
12Corners3
19Fouls14
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBesiktasOsmanlispor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.240.40
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.260.53
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.260.47
box share (last 5)0.640.58
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days930.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueVodafone Park
199.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.312.26
elo1687.151440.43
elo momentum (last 5)10.1626.03
eye test v10.920.31
eye trend v10.280.13
first sub minute (last 10)56.2059.80
form points (last 5)9.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.000.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.401.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.071.35
keeper form v10.770.61
league points27.0014.00
league rank7.0015.00
matches since blank2.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)85.6074.00
possession avg (last 5)65.6042.60
rest days7.007.23
scorer concentration0.210.29
season ppg1.800.93
skill v12.02-0.78
sot against avg (last 5)4.206.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.304.30
sot for avg (last 3)5.334.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.404.80
state index0.83-0.14
sterile dominance v10.69-0.84
threat rate (last 10)0.290.26
threat rate (last 3)0.320.24
threat rate (last 5)0.320.28
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.00