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Konyaspor 2–0 Kardemir Karabukspor

← Süper Lig 2017 · Mon, Dec 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Baris Simsek, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Konyaspor win49%2.00
Draw27%3.55
Kardemir Karabukspor win24%4.11

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

18'⚽ (pen)Nejc Skubic · Konyaspor
34'🟨Cristian Tănase · Kardemir Karabukspor
37'🟨Gheorghe Grozav · Kardemir Karabukspor
55'🟨Barış Başdaş · Kardemir Karabukspor
66'🟨Paul Papp · Kardemir Karabukspor
78'🟨Petar Filipovic · Konyaspor
89'🟨Serkan Kırıntılı · Konyaspor
90'🟨Mehdi Bourabia · Konyaspor
90'⚽Deni Milošević · Konyaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
12Shots7
6On target1
3Corners2
13Fouls16
3Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKonyasporKardemir Karabukspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.250.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.270.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.220.29
box share (last 5)0.550.48
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days71.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueKonya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu
71.00
congestion 21d4.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.513.36
elo1421.081396.03
elo momentum (last 5)-17.01-47.07
eye test v1-0.040.26
eye trend v10.320.15
first sub minute (last 10)50.1054.20
form points (last 5)3.000.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.80-1.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.800.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.480.79
keeper form v10.730.50
league points11.008.00
league rank17.0018.00
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet6.006.00
matches since win7.006.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.2081.00
possession avg (last 5)53.4058.80
rest days3.879.15
scorer concentration0.170.44
season ppg0.790.57
skill v10.411.07
sot against avg (last 5)4.204.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.504.50
sot for avg (last 3)5.005.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.204.60
state index-0.99-1.44
sterile dominance v1-0.060.55
threat rate (last 10)0.240.25
threat rate (last 3)0.230.29
threat rate (last 5)0.280.26
venue ppg (last 5)1.000.00