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Kayserispor 1–1 Besiktas

← Süper Lig 2017 · Sun, Dec 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Yasar Kemal Ugurlu, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Besiktas win55%1.78
Draw25%3.88
Kayserispor win20%4.85

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

31'⚽Umut Bulut · Kayserispor
45'🟨Tiago Lopes · Kayserispor
45'🟨Jean-Armel Kana-Biyik · Kayserispor
45'🟨Umut Bulut · Kayserispor
45'⚽ (pen)Cenk Tosun · Besiktas
49'🟨Tiago Lopes · Kayserispor
49'🟥Tiago Lopes · Kayserispor
84'🟨Anderson Talisca · Besiktas
87'🟨Silviu Lung Jr. · Kayserispor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
6Shots14
3On target4
0Corners6
11Fouls8
5Yellow cards1
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKayserisporBesiktas
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.27
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.480.29
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.410.28
box share (last 5)0.610.61
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days343.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueKadir Has Stadium
923.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.453.59
elo1536.511689.77
elo momentum (last 5)25.5718.97
eye test v10.120.95
eye trend v10.260.18
first sub minute (last 10)51.9054.40
form points (last 5)9.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.401.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.071.08
keeper form v10.680.80
league points26.0026.00
league rank6.005.00
matches since blank3.001.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.2085.00
possession avg (last 5)50.2066.00
rest days5.988.00
scorer concentration0.300.21
season ppg1.861.86
skill v1-0.021.99
sot against avg (last 5)2.804.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.204.90
sot for avg (last 3)5.006.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.605.60
state index0.490.91
sterile dominance v10.040.77
threat rate (last 10)0.230.30
threat rate (last 3)0.220.31
threat rate (last 5)0.240.31
venue ppg (last 5)2.201.40