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Osmanlispor 3–0 Alanyaspor

← Süper Lig 2017 · Sun, Dec 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Mete Kalkavan, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Osmanlispor win55%1.76
Draw25%3.88
Alanyaspor win19%5.00

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

13'⚽ (pen)Sokol Cikalleshi · Osmanlispor
20'⚽ (pen)Musa Çağıran · Osmanlispor
23'🟨Emre Nefiz · Alanyaspor
29'⚽ (pen)Serdar Gürler · Osmanlispor
41'🟨Özer Hurmacı · Osmanlispor
57'🟨Emre Akbaba · Alanyaspor
62'🟨Numan Çürüksu · Osmanlispor
76'🟨Souleymane Doukara · Osmanlispor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

3Half-time score0
10Shots13
7On target9
1Corners9
22Fouls6
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricOsmanlisporAlanyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.41
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.480.42
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.38
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.00
box share (last 5)0.540.60
cards avg (last 5)2.002.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueOsmanlı Stadyumu
coach days192.00343.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.200.14
corner diff avg (last 5)-3.80-2.00
corners against avg (last 5)6.806.40
corners for avg (last 5)3.004.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.172.53
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.12
dominance (last 5)0.380.44
elo1469.381500.45
elo momentum (last 5)8.6611.98
eye test v1-0.36-0.14
eye trend v10.14-0.64
first sub minute (last 10)58.1053.70
form points (last 5)4.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.351.51
h2 goals (last 10)0.701.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.15
keeper form v10.640.71
league points14.0017.00
league rank19.0016.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet2.003.00
matches since win2.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)71.0073.40
possession avg (last 5)41.2040.80
rest days7.006.00
scorer concentration0.290.27
season ppg0.821.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.60-1.60
shots for avg (last 5)6.407.60
skill v1-1.19-0.97
sot against avg (last 5)5.005.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.004.90
sot for avg (last 3)4.003.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.604.20
squad age28.1025.88
state index-0.19-0.27
sterile dominance v1-0.93-0.86
threat rate (last 10)0.270.30
threat rate (last 3)0.260.17
threat rate (last 5)0.260.27
venue ppg (last 5)2.600.80