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Osmanlispor 3–0 Alanyaspor

← Süper Lig 2017 · Sun, Dec 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Mete Kalkavan, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Osmanlispor win55%1.76
Draw25%3.88
Alanyaspor win19%5.00

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

13'⚽ (pen)Sokol Cikalleshi · Osmanlispor
20'⚽ (pen)Musa Çağıran · Osmanlispor
23'🟨Emre Nefiz · Alanyaspor
29'⚽ (pen)Serdar Gürler · Osmanlispor
41'🟨Özer Hurmacı · Osmanlispor
57'🟨Emre Akbaba · Alanyaspor
62'🟨Numan Çürüksu · Osmanlispor
76'🟨Souleymane Doukara · Osmanlispor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

3Half-time score0
10Shots13
7On target9
1Corners9
22Fouls6
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricOsmanlisporAlanyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.41
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.480.42
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.38
box share (last 5)0.540.60
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days192.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueOsmanlı Stadyumu
1105.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.252.51
elo1423.091479.99
elo momentum (last 5)0.658.86
eye test v1-0.36-0.14
eye trend v10.14-0.64
first sub minute (last 10)58.1053.70
form points (last 5)4.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.271.56
keeper form v10.640.71
league points11.0017.00
league rank17.0012.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win1.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)71.0073.40
possession avg (last 5)41.2040.80
rest days6.905.75
scorer concentration0.290.27
season ppg0.791.21
skill v1-1.19-0.96
sot against avg (last 5)5.005.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.004.90
sot for avg (last 3)4.003.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.604.20
state index-0.28-0.11
sterile dominance v1-0.93-0.86
threat rate (last 10)0.270.30
threat rate (last 3)0.260.17
threat rate (last 5)0.260.27
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.40