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Trabzonspor 3–0 Antalyaspor

← Süper Lig 2017 · Mon, Dec 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Yasar Kemal Ugurlu, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Trabzonspor win58%1.69
Draw23%4.21
Antalyaspor win19%5.10

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

41'⚽Burak Yılmaz · Trabzonspor
43'🟨João Pereira · Trabzonspor
46'🟨William Vainqueur · Antalyaspor
58'⚽Dame N'Doye · Trabzonspor
60'🟨Sakıb Aytaç · Antalyaspor
81'🟨Mustafa Akbaş · Trabzonspor
88'⚽Burak Yılmaz · Trabzonspor
90'🟨Ogenyi Onazi · Trabzonspor
90'🟨Diego Angelo · Antalyaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
6Shots9
5On target3
1Corners5
15Fouls17
3Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricTrabzonsporAntalyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.230.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.34
box share (last 5)0.460.62
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days64.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueMedical Park Stadyumu
429.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.012.08
elo1538.841499.54
elo momentum (last 5)20.41-15.13
eye test v10.000.29
eye trend v1-0.190.18
first sub minute (last 10)52.6059.10
form points (last 5)10.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.290.99
keeper form v10.590.65
league points19.0013.00
league rank10.0014.00
matches since blank2.000.00
matches since clean sheet2.007.00
matches since win0.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.4079.80
possession avg (last 5)49.4052.00
rest days8.258.02
scorer concentration0.320.38
season ppg1.461.00
skill v1-0.370.48
sot against avg (last 5)3.804.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.704.80
sot for avg (last 3)4.335.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.805.00
state index0.39-0.49
sterile dominance v1-0.360.13
threat rate (last 10)0.250.23
threat rate (last 3)0.250.29
threat rate (last 5)0.260.26
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.40