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Alanyaspor 1–2 Kayserispor

← Süper Lig 2017 · Mon, Dec 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bulent Yildirim, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Kayserispor win40%2.43
Alanyaspor win33%2.97
Draw27%3.61

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

16'🟨Şamil Çinaz · Kayserispor
21'⚽Güray Vural · Kayserispor
33'🟨Cenk Ahmet Alkılıç · Alanyaspor
44'🟨Welinton · Alanyaspor
44'🟨Ryan Mendes · Kayserispor
63'⚽Cenk Ahmet Alkılıç · Alanyaspor
66'🟨Güray Vural · Kayserispor
73'🟨Welinton · Alanyaspor
73'🟥Welinton · Alanyaspor
90'🟨Isaac Sackey · Alanyaspor
90'🟨Efecan Karaca · Alanyaspor
90'⚽Umut Bulut · Kayserispor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
6Shots8
5On target5
2Corners9
13Fouls10
5Yellow cards3
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlanyasporKayserispor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.260.39
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.290.38
box share (last 5)0.610.56
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days1099.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAlanya Oba Stadyumu
337.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.302.20
elo1490.701525.80
elo momentum (last 5)23.3021.36
eye test v1-0.090.24
eye trend v1-0.350.13
first sub minute (last 10)53.7050.10
form points (last 5)7.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.400.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.521.07
keeper form v10.690.64
league points17.0023.00
league rank12.007.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win1.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.6076.00
possession avg (last 5)40.2049.60
rest days9.027.00
scorer concentration0.290.28
season ppg1.311.77
skill v1-1.09-0.09
sot against avg (last 5)5.002.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.804.30
sot for avg (last 3)4.334.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.404.80
state index0.150.28
sterile dominance v1-1.31-0.27
threat rate (last 10)0.320.23
threat rate (last 3)0.300.25
threat rate (last 5)0.320.27
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.60