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Genclerbirligi 4–0 Sivasspor

← Süper Lig 2017 · Sun, Dec 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Mete Kalkavan, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sivasspor win39%2.47
Genclerbirligi win33%2.96
Draw28%3.53

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

12'⚽Petar Škuletić · Genclerbirligi
22'🟨Uğur Çiftçi · Genclerbirligi
50'🟨Jailton Paraiba · Genclerbirligi
56'⚽Diallo Guidileye · Genclerbirligi
68'⚽Elvis Manu · Genclerbirligi
77'🟨Ahmet Oğuz · Genclerbirligi
80'🟨Sergei Politevich · Genclerbirligi
80'🟨Muhammet Demir · Sivasspor
85'⚽Elvis Manu · Genclerbirligi

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
11Shots9
8On target4
6Corners6
15Fouls9
4Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGenclerbirligiSivasspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.270.41
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.200.10
box share (last 5)0.660.54
cards avg (last 5)1.602.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAnkara 19 Mayıs Stadyumu
coach days397.00277.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.10
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.170.17
corner diff avg (last 5)1.60-1.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.205.60
corners for avg (last 5)5.804.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.271.85
defensive leak (last 5)0.340.16
dominance (last 5)0.480.45
elo1488.921532.10
elo momentum (last 5)-54.83-3.36
eye test v1-0.82-0.20
eye trend v1-0.310.25
first sub minute (last 10)55.7054.30
form points (last 5)0.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-2.40-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)3.001.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.881.25
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.30
keeper form v10.540.62
league points11.0022.00
league rank19.0012.00
matches since blank0.004.00
matches since clean sheet8.003.00
matches since win6.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)70.0078.40
possession avg (last 5)41.2047.60
rest days9.007.00
scorer concentration0.150.31
season ppg0.731.47
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.00-1.00
shots for avg (last 5)7.208.20
skill v1-1.290.03
sot against avg (last 5)5.603.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.104.50
sot for avg (last 3)3.005.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.004.20
squad age26.9228.64
state index-1.15-0.04
sterile dominance v1-0.760.06
threat rate (last 10)0.250.25
threat rate (last 3)0.250.24
threat rate (last 5)0.240.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.802.40