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Bursaspor 2–1 Kardemir Karabukspor

← Süper Lig 2017 · Sun, Nov 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Mustafa Ogretmenoglu, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bursaspor win54%1.81
Draw25%3.97
Kardemir Karabukspor win21%4.56

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

11'🟨Ólafur Ingi Skúlason · Kardemir Karabukspor
12'⚽Aziz Behich · Bursaspor
17'🟨Paul Papp · Kardemir Karabukspor
22'🟨Cristóbal Jorquera · Bursaspor
37'🟨Aziz Behich · Bursaspor
37'🟨Barış Başdaş · Kardemir Karabukspor
45'⚽ (og)Barış Başdaş · Bursaspor
59'🟨Cristian Tănase · Kardemir Karabukspor
81'⚽Mustapha Yatabaré · Kardemir Karabukspor
82'🟨Pablo Batalla · Bursaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
8Shots11
4On target4
6Corners7
13Fouls16
3Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBursasporKardemir Karabukspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.24
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.30
box share (last 5)0.560.57
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days178.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBursa Büyükşehir Stadyumu
56.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.312.17
elo1466.341411.08
elo momentum (last 5)36.59-39.16
eye test v10.15-0.25
eye trend v1-0.06-0.30
first sub minute (last 10)63.9053.80
form points (last 5)9.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.20-1.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.800.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.520.79
keeper form v10.730.70
league points18.008.00
league rank8.0018.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.004.00
matches since win2.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.6077.60
possession avg (last 5)46.8052.40
rest days8.005.75
scorer concentration0.190.38
season ppg1.500.67
skill v10.310.28
sot against avg (last 5)3.805.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.004.30
sot for avg (last 3)4.333.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.203.60
state index0.41-1.12
sterile dominance v1-0.300.18
threat rate (last 10)0.260.25
threat rate (last 3)0.280.23
threat rate (last 5)0.290.24
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.20