⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Sivasspor 1–2 Trabzonspor

← Süper Lig 2017 · Sun, Nov 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Ali Palabiyik, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sivasspor win41%2.38
Trabzonspor win31%3.13
Draw28%3.50

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

12'⚽Burak Yılmaz · Trabzonspor
18'🟨Mattias Bjarsmyr · Sivasspor
22'🟨Ján Ďurica · Trabzonspor
32'⚽Muhammet Demir · Sivasspor
45'🟨Emre Kılınç · Sivasspor
52'🟨Okay Yokuşlu · Trabzonspor
83'⚽Okay Yokuşlu · Trabzonspor
90'🟨Ziya Erdal · Sivasspor
90'🟨Onur Kıvrak · Trabzonspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
11Shots6
5On target3
6Corners3
12Fouls14
3Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSivassporTrabzonspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.32
box share (last 5)0.630.47
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days270.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueYeni 4 Eylül Stadyumu
56.00
congestion 21d2.001.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.852.01
elo1509.591527.64
elo momentum (last 5)13.58-14.72
eye test v1-0.090.02
eye trend v1-0.040.20
first sub minute (last 10)54.6054.50
form points (last 5)10.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.402.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.431.29
keeper form v10.630.57
league points19.0016.00
league rank8.0011.00
matches since blank3.001.00
matches since clean sheet2.001.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.8075.40
possession avg (last 5)48.6052.60
rest days6.776.90
scorer concentration0.330.30
season ppg1.581.33
skill v10.240.06
sot against avg (last 5)3.804.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.204.70
sot for avg (last 3)4.335.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.404.80
state index0.07-0.26
sterile dominance v10.190.12
threat rate (last 10)0.260.25
threat rate (last 3)0.190.28
threat rate (last 5)0.220.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.60