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Fenerbahce 4–1 Sivasspor

← Süper Lig 2017 · Sun, Nov 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Yasar Kemal Ugurlu, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fenerbahce win56%1.74
Draw25%3.96
Sivasspor win19%5.07

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

31'⚽Nabil Dirar · Fenerbahce
46'⚽Thievy Bifouma · Sivasspor
54'🟨Şener Özbayraklı · Fenerbahce
55'🟨Auremir · Sivasspor
57'🟨Mehmet Topal · Fenerbahce
61'⚽Roberto Soldado · Fenerbahce
63'🟨Delvin N'Dinga · Sivasspor
63'🟨Thievy Bifouma · Sivasspor
64'🟨Ziya Erdal · Sivasspor
64'🟨Thievy Bifouma · Sivasspor
64'🟥Thievy Bifouma · Sivasspor
71'🟨Hakan Arslan · Sivasspor
77'⚽Roberto Soldado · Fenerbahce
81'⚽Roberto Soldado · Fenerbahce
89'🟨İsmail Köybaşı · Fenerbahce

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
11Shots4
6On target1
8Corners3
15Fouls15
3Yellow cards6
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFenerbahceSivasspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.290.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.37
box share (last 5)0.470.69
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days171.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueŞükrü Saracoğlu Stadı
263.00
congestion 21d2.001.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.251.76
elo1605.911520.16
elo momentum (last 5)-9.1139.45
eye test v1-0.240.14
eye trend v1-0.290.10
first sub minute (last 10)52.0053.40
form points (last 5)6.0013.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.201.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.321.42
keeper form v10.680.68
league points17.0019.00
league rank9.005.00
matches since blank2.002.00
matches since clean sheet2.001.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.8079.60
possession avg (last 5)57.8047.80
rest days15.0014.00
scorer concentration0.190.36
season ppg1.551.73
skill v11.090.17
sot against avg (last 5)3.603.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.404.30
sot for avg (last 3)3.005.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.004.80
state index0.140.62
sterile dominance v11.24-0.01
threat rate (last 10)0.210.27
threat rate (last 3)0.170.23
threat rate (last 5)0.170.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.80