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Besiktas 0–0 Akhisarspor

← Süper Lig 2017 · Fri, Nov 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Serkan Cinar, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Besiktas win68%1.43
Draw20%4.91
Akhisarspor win12%8.17

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

10'🟨Kadir Keleş · Akhisarspor
47'🟨Duško Tošić · Besiktas
62'🟨Atiba Hutchinson · Besiktas
76'🟨Paulo Henrique · Akhisarspor
78'🟨Ryan Babel · Besiktas
79'🟨Gary Medel · Besiktas
79'🟥Paulo Henrique · Akhisarspor
81'🟨Fatih Öztürk · Akhisarspor
88'🟨Ioan Hora · Akhisarspor
90'🟨Milan Lukač · Akhisarspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
14Shots4
4On target3
11Corners5
16Fouls15
4Yellow cards6
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBesiktasAkhisarspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.230.41
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.240.45
box share (last 5)0.500.69
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days900.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueVodafone Park
261.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.371.78
elo1688.051520.57
elo momentum (last 5)-6.37-1.81
eye test v10.050.20
eye trend v1-0.13-0.14
first sub minute (last 10)58.1061.50
form points (last 5)8.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.400.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.402.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.802.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.671.83
keeper form v10.710.53
league points21.0017.00
league rank3.007.00
matches since blank20.000.00
matches since clean sheet6.004.00
matches since win0.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.4077.00
possession avg (last 5)56.6046.00
rest days12.0212.25
scorer concentration0.250.31
season ppg1.911.55
skill v10.96-0.23
sot against avg (last 5)5.004.20
sot for avg (last 10)5.104.30
sot for avg (last 3)4.334.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.804.80
state index0.71-0.17
sterile dominance v10.24-0.17
threat rate (last 10)0.290.24
threat rate (last 3)0.320.19
threat rate (last 5)0.290.24
venue ppg (last 5)2.200.80