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Akhisarspor 0–4 Alanyaspor

← Süper Lig 2017 · Sun, Nov 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Ali Palabiyik, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Akhisarspor win51%1.93
Alanyaspor win25%3.87
Draw24%4.03

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

8'⚽Junior Fernandes · Alanyaspor
20'🟨Fabrice N'Sakala · Alanyaspor
35'⚽Junior Fernandes · Alanyaspor
43'🟨Caner Osmanpaşa · Akhisarspor
57'⚽Emre Akbaba · Alanyaspor
73'🟨Georgios Tzavellas · Alanyaspor
76'⚽Vagner Love · Alanyaspor
89'🟨Ömer Bayram · Akhisarspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2
5Shots14
4On target7
3Corners6
10Fouls13
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAkhisarsporAlanyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.41
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.540.37
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.430.44
box share (last 5)0.700.58
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days249.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueManisa 19 Mayis
1070.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.782.56
elo1546.571464.94
elo momentum (last 5)7.1822.54
eye test v10.120.53
eye trend v10.55-0.15
first sub minute (last 10)62.9055.50
form points (last 5)7.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.600.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.602.20
goals for avg (last 5)2.202.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.751.25
keeper form v10.530.56
league points17.0011.00
league rank6.0014.00
matches since blank4.0010.00
matches since clean sheet3.006.00
matches since win2.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.0071.00
possession avg (last 5)46.6038.00
rest days7.907.77
scorer concentration0.310.25
season ppg1.701.10
skill v1-0.18-1.40
sot against avg (last 5)3.404.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.105.30
sot for avg (last 3)6.005.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.605.60
state index0.34-0.02
sterile dominance v1-0.15-1.64
threat rate (last 10)0.240.31
threat rate (last 3)0.260.34
threat rate (last 5)0.240.33
venue ppg (last 5)2.601.40