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Antalyaspor 2–1 Kardemir Karabukspor

← Süper Lig 2017 · Sat, Nov 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Arda Kardesler, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Antalyaspor win55%1.77
Draw26%3.81
Kardemir Karabukspor win19%5.08

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

2'🟨Charles · Antalyaspor
5'⚽Samuel Eto'o · Antalyaspor
40'🟨Valerică Găman · Kardemir Karabukspor
46'🟨Chico · Antalyaspor
60'⚽Mustapha Yatabaré · Kardemir Karabukspor
62'🟨Luis Ibáñez · Kardemir Karabukspor
65'⚽Samuel Eto'o · Antalyaspor
67'🟥Ceyhun Gülselam · Kardemir Karabukspor
73'🟨Harun Alpsoy · Antalyaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
12Shots10
10On target3
3Corners9
15Fouls11
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAntalyasporKardemir Karabukspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.310.33
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.37
box share (last 5)0.620.60
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days399.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAntalya Stadyumu
34.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.421.70
elo1502.001433.12
elo momentum (last 5)-37.18-39.34
eye test v10.45-0.20
eye trend v10.20-0.07
first sub minute (last 10)54.0056.50
form points (last 5)6.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.80-1.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.202.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.990.99
keeper form v10.480.53
league points9.008.00
league rank15.0017.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet4.002.00
matches since win1.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)84.6076.40
possession avg (last 5)58.4051.80
rest days6.006.10
scorer concentration0.300.43
season ppg0.900.80
skill v11.420.11
sot against avg (last 5)4.003.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.903.90
sot for avg (last 3)4.673.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.003.80
state index-0.48-0.98
sterile dominance v11.040.25
threat rate (last 10)0.200.24
threat rate (last 3)0.240.22
threat rate (last 5)0.210.22
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.40