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Fenerbahce 3–3 Kayserispor

← Süper Lig 2017 · Mon, Oct 30, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Halil Umut Meler, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fenerbahce win63%1.56
Draw23%4.26
Kayserispor win14%6.78

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

41'⚽Umut Bulut · Kayserispor
45'⚽Ozan Tufan · Fenerbahce
50'⚽Roman Neustädter · Fenerbahce
61'🟨Oleksandr Kucher · Kayserispor
62'⚽Souza · Fenerbahce
67'🟨Luís Neto · Fenerbahce
68'⚽ (og)Luís Neto · Kayserispor
88'🟨Vincent Janssen · Fenerbahce
90'🟨Roman Neustädter · Fenerbahce
90'⚽Asamoah Gyan · Kayserispor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
12Shots7
5On target4
6Corners6
13Fouls14
3Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFenerbahceKayserispor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.260.29
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.290.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.500.50
cards avg (last 5)3.000.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueŞükrü Saracoğlu Stadı
coach days151.00302.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.150.17
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.801.20
corners against avg (last 5)6.203.60
corners for avg (last 5)5.404.80
corners volatility (last 10)1.321.17
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.11
dominance (last 5)0.510.60
elo1710.711540.90
elo momentum (last 5)7.5812.45
eye test v1-0.10-0.10
eye trend v1-0.28-0.07
first sub minute (last 10)54.4048.40
form points (last 5)8.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.400.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.350.85
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.30
keeper form v10.690.70
league points16.0018.00
league rank11.008.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.005.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)84.6080.00
possession avg (last 5)58.0056.60
rest days7.948.04
scorer concentration0.170.23
season ppg1.451.64
shot diff avg (last 5)1.403.80
shots for avg (last 5)9.2010.80
skill v11.390.82
sot against avg (last 5)2.803.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.304.00
sot for avg (last 3)3.674.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.203.80
squad age27.2729.18
state index0.510.32
sterile dominance v11.220.69
threat rate (last 10)0.210.21
threat rate (last 3)0.140.24
threat rate (last 5)0.190.22
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.00