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Genclerbirligi 0–1 Yeni Malatyaspor

← Süper Lig 2017 · Sat, Oct 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Huseyin Gocek, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Genclerbirligi win42%2.30
Draw29%3.35
Yeni Malatyaspor win28%3.44

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

21'🟨Uğur Çiftçi · Genclerbirligi
42'🟨Murat Yildirim · Yeni Malatyaspor
68'⚽Khalid Boutaïb · Yeni Malatyaspor
76'🟥Zeki Yavru · Genclerbirligi
76'🟨Sadık Çiftpınar · Yeni Malatyaspor
90'🟨Khalid Boutaïb · Yeni Malatyaspor
90'🟨Ertaç Özbir · Yeni Malatyaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
5Shots6
1On target2
2Corners4
16Fouls12
1Yellow cards4
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGenclerbirligiYeni Malatyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.420.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.490.24
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.480.30
blown lead rate (last 20)0.200.05
box share (last 5)0.520.72
cards avg (last 5)2.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAnkara 19 Mayıs Stadyumu
3.00
coach days361.0057.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.260.27
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.400.60
corners against avg (last 5)3.803.60
corners for avg (last 5)3.404.20
corners volatility (last 10)1.752.22
defensive leak (last 5)0.240.22
dominance (last 5)0.470.44
elo1543.751497.78
elo momentum (last 5)28.926.93
eye test v10.47-0.49
eye trend v10.21-0.24
first sub minute (last 10)52.7058.22
form points (last 5)10.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.602.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.821.16
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.900.10
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.30
keeper form v10.490.56
league points11.0011.00
league rank13.0018.00
matches since blank8.008.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)70.4075.40
possession avg (last 5)44.8044.40
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.180.42
season ppg1.101.10
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.20-2.40
shots for avg (last 5)8.007.60
skill v1-0.99-0.50
sot against avg (last 5)4.805.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.203.56
sot for avg (last 3)5.002.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.603.00
squad age26.8428.85
state index0.20-0.27
sterile dominance v1-0.84-0.55
threat rate (last 10)0.250.26
threat rate (last 3)0.260.25
threat rate (last 5)0.270.26
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.60