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Yeni Malatyaspor 1–0 Trabzonspor

← Süper Lig 2017 · Sat, Oct 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Halil Umut Meler, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Trabzonspor win46%2.14
Yeni Malatyaspor win28%3.54
Draw27%3.64

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

12'🟨José Sosa · Trabzonspor
31'🟨José Sosa · Trabzonspor
31'🟥José Sosa · Trabzonspor
33'🟨Uğur Demirok · Trabzonspor
45'⚽ (og)Okay Yokuşlu · Yeni Malatyaspor
69'🟨Khalid Boutaïb · Yeni Malatyaspor
74'🟨Mustafa Akbaş · Trabzonspor
90'🟨Yalçın Ayhan · Yeni Malatyaspor
90'🟨Buğra Çağıran · Yeni Malatyaspor
90'🟨Emmanuel Más · Trabzonspor
90'🟥Yusuf Yazıcı · Trabzonspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
10Shots9
2On target4
5Corners2
18Fouls17
3Yellow cards5
0Red cards2

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricYeni MalatyasporTrabzonspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.400.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.35
box share (last 5)0.720.60
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days50.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueYeni Malatya Stadyumu
20.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)—2.47
elo1476.471518.43
elo momentum (last 5)-20.93-19.04
eye test v1-0.240.30
eye trend v1-0.010.11
first sub minute (last 10)57.1254.50
form points (last 5)4.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)2.603.00
goals for avg (last 5)2.002.20
goals volatility (last 10)—0.74
keeper form v10.500.54
league points8.009.00
league rank16.0011.00
matches since blank6.0010.00
matches since clean sheet8.0010.00
matches since win2.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.2080.80
possession avg (last 5)46.8059.80
rest days6.006.13
scorer concentration0.420.33
season ppg1.001.13
skill v1-0.141.13
sot against avg (last 5)5.005.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.753.90
sot for avg (last 3)3.334.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.604.60
state index-0.50-0.51
sterile dominance v1-0.070.77
threat rate (last 10)0.250.22
threat rate (last 3)0.220.22
threat rate (last 5)0.230.24
venue ppg (last 5)—0.80