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Akhisarspor 3–3 Genclerbirligi

← Süper Lig 2017 · Sat, Oct 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Suat Arslanboga, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Akhisarspor win54%1.81
Draw28%3.54
Genclerbirligi win18%5.29

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

18'⚽Serdar Özkan · Genclerbirligi
23'⚽Uğur Çiftçi · Genclerbirligi
35'🟨Aleksandar Šćekić · Genclerbirligi
39'⚽ (pen)Soner Aydoğdu · Akhisarspor
45'⚽Vedat Muriqi · Genclerbirligi
50'🟨Uğur Çiftçi · Genclerbirligi
59'🟨Aleksandar Šćekić · Genclerbirligi
59'🟥Aleksandar Šćekić · Genclerbirligi
60'⚽ (pen)Paulo Henrique · Akhisarspor
65'⚽Abdoul Sissoko · Akhisarspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score3
6Shots5
4On target5
2Corners3
14Fouls14
0Yellow cards3
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAkhisarsporGenclerbirligi
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.41
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.430.47
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.45
box share (last 5)0.640.44
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days234.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueManisa 19 Mayis
354.00
congestion 21d1.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.661.99
elo1557.241471.40
elo momentum (last 5)2.80-4.56
eye test v10.040.28
eye trend v10.180.33
first sub minute (last 10)63.4051.10
form points (last 5)9.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.402.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.730.63
keeper form v10.580.52
league points16.007.00
league rank4.0016.00
matches since blank2.006.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.6070.20
possession avg (last 5)46.0044.80
rest days6.007.85
scorer concentration0.270.25
season ppg2.000.88
skill v1-0.26-1.01
sot against avg (last 5)3.605.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.204.10
sot for avg (last 3)5.005.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.405.20
state index0.46-0.41
sterile dominance v1-0.37-0.80
threat rate (last 10)0.270.24
threat rate (last 3)0.260.28
threat rate (last 5)0.260.27
venue ppg (last 5)2.400.60