⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Goztep 3–3 Alanyaspor

← Süper Lig 2017 · Fri, Oct 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Firat Aydinus, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Goztep win45%2.18
Alanyaspor win29%3.41
Draw27%3.65

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

11'🟨Isaac Sackey · Alanyaspor
41'⚽Adis Jahović · Goztep
57'🟨Miloš Kosanović · Goztep
57'🟨Lamine Gassama · Alanyaspor
66'⚽Efecan Karaca · Alanyaspor
72'⚽André Castro · Goztep
74'⚽Adis Jahović · Goztep
87'⚽Mbilla Etame · Alanyaspor
88'🟨Emre Akbaba · Alanyaspor
90'🟨Sabri Sarioğlu · Goztep
90'🟨Fabrice N'Sakala · Alanyaspor
90'🟨Junior Fernandes · Alanyaspor
90'⚽Junior Fernandes · Alanyaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
10Shots9
4On target5
4Corners9
12Fouls15
1Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGoztepAlanyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.470.41
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.440.52
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.480.42
box share (last 5)0.620.60
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days111.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBornova Stadyumu
1054.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)—2.47
elo1543.011467.41
elo momentum (last 5)40.5929.61
eye test v10.660.43
eye trend v1-0.290.10
first sub minute (last 10)62.0054.90
form points (last 5)12.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.000.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.402.00
goals for avg (last 5)2.402.40
goals volatility (last 10)—1.32
keeper form v10.680.43
league points16.0010.00
league rank4.0010.00
matches since blank6.008.00
matches since clean sheet4.004.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.0074.00
possession avg (last 5)51.8037.80
rest days6.156.15
scorer concentration0.420.33
season ppg2.001.25
skill v10.39-1.10
sot against avg (last 5)5.405.00
sot for avg (last 10)5.635.70
sot for avg (last 3)5.336.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.605.20
state index0.660.09
sterile dominance v10.18-1.47
threat rate (last 10)0.270.32
threat rate (last 3)0.250.33
threat rate (last 5)0.240.33
venue ppg (last 5)—1.20