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Bursaspor 3–1 Osmanlispor

← Süper Lig 2017 · Mon, Oct 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Cuneyt Cakir, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Osmanlispor win38%2.57
Bursaspor win35%2.81
Draw27%3.57

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

20'🟨Ertuğrul Ersoy · Bursaspor
23'⚽Souleymane Doukara · Osmanlispor
30'⚽Bogdan Stancu · Bursaspor
38'⚽Mikel Agu · Bursaspor
40'🟨Musa Çağıran · Osmanlispor
41'🟨Titi · Bursaspor
44'🟨Koray Altınay · Osmanlispor
62'🟥Jires Kembo-Ekoko · Bursaspor
75'⚽Aziz Behich · Bursaspor
84'🟨Numan Çürüksu · Osmanlispor
90'🟨Tiago Pinto · Osmanlispor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
7Shots8
3On target4
5Corners8
14Fouls13
2Yellow cards4
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBursasporOsmanlispor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.410.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.500.33
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.470.32
box share (last 5)0.540.52
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days137.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBursa Büyükşehir Stadyumu
137.00
congestion 21d1.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.831.49
elo1429.751417.09
elo momentum (last 5)22.41-16.41
eye test v1-0.320.55
eye trend v10.14-0.06
first sub minute (last 10)55.3055.20
form points (last 5)6.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.802.20
goals for avg (last 5)2.001.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.251.05
keeper form v10.600.52
league points9.004.00
league rank10.0018.00
matches since blank6.001.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)71.0078.60
possession avg (last 5)37.2045.80
rest days16.1516.25
scorer concentration0.330.22
season ppg1.290.57
skill v1-1.45-0.07
sot against avg (last 5)4.804.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.805.00
sot for avg (last 3)4.004.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.805.00
state index-0.11-0.73
sterile dominance v1-0.95-1.01
threat rate (last 10)0.240.32
threat rate (last 3)0.240.34
threat rate (last 5)0.240.35
venue ppg (last 5)1.200.20