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Antalyaspor 1–3 Goztep

← Süper Lig 2017 · Sat, Oct 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Huseyin Gocek, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Antalyaspor win49%1.98
Draw26%3.79
Goztep win25%3.92

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

8'⚽Adis Jahović · Goztep
19'⚽Adis Jahović · Goztep
21'🟨Adama Traoré · Goztep
23'🟨Johan Djourou · Antalyaspor
26'🟨Sandro · Antalyaspor
27'⚽Maicon · Antalyaspor
28'🟨Sandro · Antalyaspor
28'🟥Sandro · Antalyaspor
32'🟨Ferhat Kaplan · Antalyaspor
36'🟨Kadu · Goztep
45'🟨Selçuk Şahin · Goztep
90'⚽Ömer Şişmanoğlu · Goztep

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2
10Shots11
5On target4
5Corners2
12Fouls13
4Yellow cards3
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAntalyasporGoztep
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.410.49
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.460.53
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.450.51
box share (last 5)0.720.63
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days378.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAntalya Stadyumu
105.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.06—
elo1532.541525.14
elo momentum (last 5)-22.5332.56
eye test v10.080.99
eye trend v1-0.02-0.07
first sub minute (last 10)56.4062.00
form points (last 5)5.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.202.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.34—
keeper form v10.630.70
league points6.0013.00
league rank17.006.00
matches since blank2.005.00
matches since clean sheet1.003.00
matches since win1.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)83.2076.00
possession avg (last 5)56.0050.00
rest days14.1012.88
scorer concentration0.290.33
season ppg0.861.86
skill v11.12-0.04
sot against avg (last 5)3.205.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.305.86
sot for avg (last 3)4.336.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.206.40
state index-0.030.44
sterile dominance v11.19-0.35
threat rate (last 10)0.200.27
threat rate (last 3)0.150.26
threat rate (last 5)0.170.28
venue ppg (last 5)2.20—