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Besiktas 2–2 Trabzonspor

← Süper Lig 2017 · Sun, Oct 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Firat Aydinus, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Besiktas win58%1.67
Draw25%3.83
Trabzonspor win16%6.04

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

13'⚽Anderson Talisca · Besiktas
20'⚽Olcay Şahan · Trabzonspor
26'🟨Gary Medel · Besiktas
29'🟨Burak Yılmaz · Trabzonspor
36'🟨Tomáš Hubočan · Trabzonspor
39'🟨Okay Yokuşlu · Trabzonspor
44'🟨Caner Erkin · Besiktas
55'🟨Ogenyi Onazi · Trabzonspor
58'⚽Jeremain Lens · Besiktas
71'🟨Tolgay Arslan · Besiktas
80'⚽Hugo Rodallega · Trabzonspor
90'🟨Ryan Babel · Besiktas

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
9Shots10
3On target7
1Corners4
17Fouls20
4Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBesiktasTrabzonspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.29
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.32
box share (last 5)0.600.59
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days853.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueVodafone Park
0.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.622.40
elo1694.421536.80
elo momentum (last 5)-2.55-7.05
eye test v11.07-0.21
eye trend v1-0.130.34
first sub minute (last 10)62.5057.00
form points (last 5)10.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.600.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.002.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.602.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.170.95
keeper form v10.810.47
league points13.008.00
league rank5.0012.00
matches since blank17.008.00
matches since clean sheet1.008.00
matches since win1.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)84.0076.80
possession avg (last 5)58.0055.60
rest days8.008.98
scorer concentration0.380.42
season ppg2.171.33
skill v11.340.43
sot against avg (last 5)3.405.00
sot for avg (last 10)6.203.40
sot for avg (last 3)6.334.33
sot for avg (last 5)6.403.60
state index0.88-0.14
sterile dominance v10.390.40
threat rate (last 10)0.280.22
threat rate (last 3)0.320.27
threat rate (last 5)0.290.23
venue ppg (last 5)3.000.80